April 7th 2016, Augusta, Georgia, U.S.A.: Adam Scott, who knows a thing or two about winning at Augusta National, puts the number between 10 and 15. That’s how many players he believes “could make a good case” for winning the Masters this week.
With 89 players teeing off Thursday, Scott’s estimate doesn't seem very high. But to understand his point, some perspective is needed.
For a decade or so, only one player arrived at Augusta National each April with the strongest case for winning the season’s first major. While Tiger Woods didn’t win every Masters, he always entered the tournament with the biggest – and usually only – target on his back. “Tiger,” noted Scott, “controlled the outcome.”
But Woods, in the midst of another return from injury, is missing his second Masters in three years. The only outcome he controlled this week was how much Texas barbeque he consumed during Tuesday’s Champions Dinner hosted by Jordan Spieth.
Tiger has not been replaced by another Tiger this week, but by an assortment of 10 to 15 legitimate contenders. Justin Rose was watching TV this week when he noticed that bookmakers have set 12-to-1 odds or better for a half-dozen players. Those might seem like long odds for a horse race, but in a large and competitive golf field, those are relatively short odds.
“I don’t think that’s been the case in a major championship for a long, long time,” Rose said. “Tells you the depth and strength (of the field).”
Rory McIlroy (NIR)
Jordan Spieth (USA)
Rickie Fowler (USA)
Rarely have so many top-end players have converged in such top form. Consider this:
• Scott, the 2013 Masters champ, and fellow Aussie Jason Day have each won twice in the last two months on the PGA TOUR. In fact, Day has won his last two starts.
• Two-time Masters winner Bubba Watson (2012, '14) and defending champ Spieth also have TOUR wins in 2016, while reigning PLAYERS champ Rickie Fowler won the European Tour’s Abu Dhabi Championship in January.
• McIlroy, whose last win came in November, has two top-5 finishes in his last two World Golf Championships, while Dustin Johnson has three top-5s in his last four starts.
• Henrik Stenson finished second at last week’s Shell Houston Open – his eighth runner-up finish since his last win in November 2014.
• Charl Schwartzel, the 2011 Masters champ, has won three times in his last eight starts worldwide, while fellow South African Louis Oosthuizen has three top-10s, including a win, in his last five starts.
• Patrick Reed has seven top-10s in 11 starts this season, tops among all TOUR pros. Rose has five top-10s in his last 11 starts worldwide, including a win in Hong Kong.
• And while Phil Mickelson, the three-time Masters champ, hasn’t won since the 2013 Open Championship, he has been in contention several times this season and appears to be peaking. “For the first time, I really feel like coming into this tournament, I’m not trying to find anything or search for anything,” Mickelson said.
That’s 13 names right there, and you could certainly make a case for each of them this week, as well as another past Masters champ, Zach Johnson, or a rising star such as Hideki Matsuyama.
“We all know who is capable of having firepower in a major and certainly the firepower that’s been produced over the last few months,” said Spieth, looking to become just the fourth player to successfully defend a Masters title. “There’s a lot of guys who have a lot of success here that have really brought some strong finishes and motivation and some momentum into this week.”
The depth is so strong that nobody seems willing to accept the role as favorite.
Spieth asked with a sly grin, “Isn’t Jason the favorite? … He can be the favorite. I’ll go ahead and we’ll just do our thing.”
Day, meanwhile, is trying to become just the third player to win the Masters after winning his previous two starts; Tiger did it in 2001 and Jack Nicklaus did it in 1975. Given that Day also won the most recent major – last year’s PGA Championship – and finished third and shared second the first two times he completed all 72 holes at Augusta National, perhaps he should get the biggest target.
“I don’t think I’m the favorite this week,” Day said. “… There’s so many players that can win around here, and there’s not just one heavy favorite.”
Scott argued that his back-to-back wins during the Florida Swing were too long ago to make him the top target. “I don’t know if I have really sustained that form,” he said.
Fowler, who just two years ago finished in the top 5 in all four majors and seems on the cusp of breaking through with his first major win, doesn’t mind if others assume the heavier expectations. “I’m fine with sneaking around,” he said.
By the back nine Sunday, of course, we should have a narrower focus on who’ll wear the Green Jacket. Perhaps that list of 15 will be reduced to a half-dozen or less. Day, of course, would love to be in the mix, but even if he isn’t, he hopes the other notables will provide the drama.
“I would enjoy a Spieth-McIlroy-Fowler-Scott-Watson-Mickelson Sunday,” he said. “That would be a lot of fun.”
